Start here · Essential guide
The Math Behind Gaming: Understanding Probability and Strategy
Learn the core ideas of probability, from counting outcomes to expected value, and see how they shape the choices players make in dice, card and video games.
Foundations
The core ideas of probability and statistics as they apply to games.
Start here · Essential guide
Learn the core ideas of probability, from counting outcomes to expected value, and see how they shape the choices players make in dice, card and video games.
Why games include chance, how designers use it, and how rational players treat random events by separating good decisions from good outcomes.
See how averages, variance and standard deviation describe results across many plays, and why small samples of game results can mislead.
Explore how game results spread out, from the bell shape of summed dice to skewed loot drops, and what separates a typical result from a rare one.
Learn how to read win rates across different kinds of games, why sample size matters, and what a 55 percent record can and cannot tell you.
How decision science frames choices under uncertainty in games, from building simple models and simulating them to testing results and updating beliefs.
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