What an anchor does
Ask someone to estimate a value after showing them a number, and their answer tends to land closer to that number than it otherwise would. This is the anchoring effect. The number does not have to be relevant, accurate or even meaningful. Experiments going back decades have found that people adjust away from an initial figure, but usually not far enough.
In games, numbers are everywhere: starting prices, listed odds, previous scores, suggested bids, a rival’s opening offer. Each can become an anchor for what comes next, and the effect tends to operate without our noticing.
Where anchors appear in games
Trading and shops. A rare item is listed at a high price, and a slightly lower price suddenly looks like a bargain, even if the item is overpriced in both cases. In games with player-to-player trading, the first offer often frames the whole negotiation. A player who opens with an extreme request and then “compromises” can end up with a better deal than the item deserves.
Auctions and bidding. The first bid or the stated reserve gives bidders a reference point. Later bids tend to cluster around it. The topic of auction theory explains how formats shape bidding, but anchoring adds a psychological layer: the number you hear first can pull your private valuation with it.
Probability estimates. If a game shows a percentage, such as a displayed hit chance or the odds of an upgrade succeeding, players often treat it as a baseline and adjust from there, even when they have good reason to think the display is misleading. A previous result can anchor too. Someone who has just rolled a 3 may feel that 3 is the “normal” result and judge later rolls against it.
Scores and ratings. A first impression of an opponent’s skill, perhaps from a single game or a rating shown at the start, can colour how you read their later moves, long after better evidence has arrived.
A worked example
Suppose you are deciding how much a collectible card is worth in a casual trade. A friend says, “I saw one sell for 50.” You think it over and settle on 40. Another friend, who had seen one sell for 20, would have said 25 or so. Neither of you did anything irrational on the surface, since each adjusted downward from what you heard. But the two answers differ by an amount that has nothing to do with the card. The anchor did the work.
The key point is that the final estimate depended on the order of information. An unbiased valuation should not.
Why adjustments fall short
One common explanation is that people start from the anchor and adjust until they reach a figure that seems plausible, then stop. Because they stop at the edge of plausibility instead of the centre, the estimate stays biased toward the anchor. Another explanation is that the anchor makes certain information more available. After seeing a high number, reasons why a high value is justified come to mind more easily than reasons for a low one.
Either way, being told that a number is irrelevant does not fully remove its pull. Awareness helps, but it is not a cure.
Checking whether you are anchored
Some habits make anchors easier to spot.
- Form your own estimate first. Before looking at the listed price, odds or opponent’s offer, write down what you think the value is and why. Then compare.
- Generate a range from both sides. Ask what the lowest and highest sensible values would be. If your range is narrow and sits near the number you were given, be suspicious.
- Use an independent reference. Several unrelated comparisons, such as past sales, similar items or a calculation from first principles, are harder for one anchor to dominate.
- Use a principled baseline where you can. In games of chance, the expected value of a choice is a more sensible reference than whichever figure happened to come first. It will not remove uncertainty, but it is a reference the opponent did not pick.
- Delay. If a deal does not need an answer now, leave it and return. The initial number often loses some of its grip.
Using this fairly
Knowing about anchoring cuts both ways. You can be protected from other people’s opening numbers, and you can also decide whether it is fair to use them yourself. Opening a trade with a realistic, justified figure tends to produce fewer disputes than an inflated one, and in a friendly game a long-term relationship with other players may matter more than one good swap.
Anchors can affect how players judge probability too. After seeing stated drop rates, many players hold on to that figure when thinking about their own luck, even when their own limited experience says little either way. A few observed results are a very weak guide to the true rate, so the stated figure may actually be the better reference. Where anchoring becomes a problem is when a number carries no information at all, such as a high “original price” that was never charged.
None of this makes decisions certain. Valuing items and odds involves uncertainty whatever the starting point, but separating what you know from what you were handed makes your estimates more your own.